Israel strikes Iran...and that's just the beginning

The situation is dangerous and uncertain, but the alternative, allowing Iran to continue its race to nuclear weapons capability, would have been even more dangerous.

Our post yesterday predicting a strike on Iran’s nuclear program “in the coming days” now seems rather prophetic. But of course there’s no magic to it: it was just really good, deep analysis, and putting together all the clues in a subject matter that we know very, very well.

Photo: Natanz, Iran’s most significant nuclear facility, in the process of being destroyed, from Iran’s MEHR News Agency.

Israel has launched at least four waves of strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile facilities and command structure, with operations apparently continuing even now.

According to Israeli defense officials, Iran has launched 100 attack drones at Israel, and defense systems are currently working to intercept them. Ballistic missiles are expected as well.

In a speech in the early hours of the morning, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu cautioned Israelis that we may have to be remain in bomb shelters for more time than we are used to: perhaps hours or days. The Prime Minister also said he feels the Iranian people are “closer than ever” to their “liberation from tyranny,” a hint that this attack might be about more than merely degrading the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, but perhaps actually ending the regime entirely (or at least weakening it to the point that local forces can finish the job - perhaps not unlike the fall of Iran’s proxy Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.)

In addition to arial bombings there have been numerous reports of on-the-ground sabotage by the Mossad. There are even (unconfirmed) hints in Israeli media that the IDF may have deployed ground forces into Iran. There is precedent for such an operation: Israel’s stunning strike on the Masyaf weapons factory in Syria last year, which I discussed it in this prior post.

The feeling here is a mixture of tension and relief: on the one hand, the present situation is dangerous and uncertain, but the alternative, allowing Iran to continue its race to nuclear weapons capability, would have been even more dangerous.

I won’t attempt to give you a point by point update of everything that’s happening, events are changing too quickly and anyway, there are plenty of conventional news sources for that. Our strength is the deep (and sometimes almost prescient) analysis you’ve come to expect, as well the way we use our research and analysis to change policies around the world: in a manner that helps protect Israel and Jewish communities.

However, I will try to update you as often as practical, and of course, we won’t stop our ongoing work. In the coming days and weeks there will be no shortage of claims that Israel violated international law, or Iranian sovereignty, or that Israel “started” a war. Of course, none of that is true. But as you might imagine, I have a few other matters of more urgent importance right now, and (God willing) there will be time to address every relevant question, once the Iranian regime is degraded or demolished, the Israeli people are safe, and the people of Iran awake to a new day with a new chance for a better future.

Please send us your thoughts and prayers. And if you feel inclined to support our work, remember that (as always) donations to RealityCheck are U.S. tax deductible as we are a 501 (c)(3) charity with a Platinum rating from Guidestar.

Best wishes, and see you on the other side of all this.

Daniel