What do Israelis really think of Trump's plan to evacuate Gaza?

Israelis believe, with good reason, that a Palestinian presence in Gaza will inevitably bring about more October 7 style horrors, in the nightmarish spirit of Mohammad’s Khaybar massacre.

When U.S. President Donald Trump announced his plan to evacuate the population of Gaza, much of the world erupted in dramatic objection. I addressed some of the arguments in a previous post, including: that the plan does not violate international law, Palestinians do not consider Gaza to be “home,” and that a large percentage of the population actually wants to leave. Today I will address the Israeli response.

*Photo: Palestinian children in Hamas uniforms brandish weapons at hostage “release ceremony.” Photo by Al Quds Agency.

It should be noted that Israeli attention is primarily focused on the release of hostages, along with Hamas’s horrific “release ceremonies,” which have been conducted with the active participation of Palestinian civilians and the International Red Cross. This includes the dramatically cruel release of bodies of the Bibas children (ages 4 and 10 months at the time of their murder) and their mother. Israelis are glued to their televisions, watching live coverage, and sometimes openly crying in public.

Yet Israelis are also aware of Trump’s plan for evacuating Gaza. In contrast to the international controversy, 73% of Israelis favor the idea, including almost all Israeli Jews and nearly half of Israeli Arabs. This is not a “right wing” opinion, but a national consensus, exhibited across the left, right and center of Israel’s entire political spectrum.

Israelis are famously argumentative: the country is home to about a dozen political parties (the number varies from year to year), massive protests are commonplace, and broad agreement is rare. So when Israelis do agree on something, it’s time to sit up and take notice.

Evacuating Gaza used to be considered an unrealistic fantasy of Israel’s “far right.” This dramatic change in public opinion is the gradual result of a number of events, which culminated in the massacre of October 7, 2023.

During the Oslo Peace Process in the 1990s, Israelis were widely optimistic about eventual peace and coexistence with Palestinians. Israelis were therefore surprised when Palestinians subsequently rejected several offers for independence and statehood. The Jewish state was further shocked and dismayed when Palestinians responded to peace offers with the “Second Intifada”: a massive wave of terrorism that lasted from approximately 2000 to 2005. During these years, Israeli opinion became divided, but a large contingent continued to believe in a future of true, neighborly relations.

Then came several dark but clear foreshadowings of October 7:

Palestinians massacred the Fogel family in their family home in 2011, and the Salomon family in 2017. These massacres were absolutely as bloody and gruesome as October 7, including torture, murdering children, and leaving the family homes soaked in blood. Even so, many Israelis downplayed the events, convincing themselves that it was "only" one family, or that the victims were "just settlers.”

*Aftermath of the massacre of the Salomon family in 2017. Photo by IDF.

Yet in retrospect, such denial was clearly naive: for years, at nearly every Palestinian protest or riot, one could hear shouts of "Khaybar, Khaybar, ya Yahud!” “Khaybar” refers to a massacre in the 7th century, in which Mohammad annihilated an entire Jewish community: including mass murder, beheadings, torture, rape and taking captives. If that sounds familiar, it’s not a coincidence: Palestinians brag that the October 7 massacre was divinely inspired by Mohammad at Khaybar.

Finally, in 2023 came October 7 itself: the largest mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust. Though horrifying, this massacre should not have been surprising: Palestinians had been loudly expressing their desire to carry out such a massacre for years, and had even succeeded on numerous occasions, albeit on a smaller scale. It was not lost on Israelis that the October 7 attackers included not only Hamas fighters, but also ordinary Palestinian civilians as well as United Nations staff.

The resources used in the October 7 invasion of Israel included humanitarian aid: such as the fuel that powered Hamas’s rockets instead of homes and hospitals, as well as cement from a factory that was built with funding from USAID and subsequently used to construct Gaza’s underground, military tunnel network. Israelis are still being held captive in Gaza’s tunnels even today, subject to starvation, torture and rape, all while imprisoned within walls of American funded cement. Hamas has promised to repeat these massacres “a second and a third and a fourth” time, and ordinary Palestinians have expressed widespread support.

Finally, came the horrific hostage “release ceremonies” in which Hamas created a media spectacle of starved and injured Israelis, while Israel stood helpless to prevent it. Despite heavy losses, Hamas has used these ceremonies as a means of declaring victory and power over Israel. As many Gazans return to areas previously evacuated by fighting, Hamas is also claiming a territorial gain, calling it “a victory for our people, and a declaration of the failure and defeat of the occupation [Israel] and its displacement plans.”

Hamas’s drive to declare a victory is not mere “sloganeering” but a significant strategic priority. In the Arab world, perception is critical, in particular perceptions around territory, and it is therefore vitally important for the safety both of Israel and the West, that October 7 not be perceived as a territorial victory. Unless October 7 comes to be seen as the catalyst that entirely ended the Palestinian territorial presence in Gaza, Hamas will most likely gain support and strength despite its losses (as is already happening throughout the Arab and Muslim world at large) and October 7 will become a model for further massacres by terror groups throughout the region.

Based on all of these factors, it has become undeniably clear to most Israelis that there is widespread support within Palestinian society to carry out additional October 7 style massacres, and that no amount of deterrence, military strength, or political maneuvering can prevent such an outcome in the long term. Nor do Israelis believe that safety can come from peace processes, humanitarian aid or even offers of statehood, as all have failed spectacularly in the past, and have even become resources to fund and supply further terror attacks. It is clear that the Arab world shares this view, as evidenced by its unanimous refusal to accept Palestinians within their own borders, often describing Palestinians as a “threat to national security.”

In short, Israelis believe, with good reason, that a continued Palestinian presence in Gaza will inevitably bring about more October 7 style horrors, in the nightmarish spirit of Mohammad’s Khaybar massacre. The Arab world shares this same reluctance to live alongside Palestinian society, and for similar reasons. Events of the past three decades support this perception, and events of the past sixteen months, including current Palestinian statements and opinion polls, make the conclusion difficult to avoid or deny, even among the most left-wing, dovish elements of Israeli society.

Israelis almost never agree on anything, but they agree on this.