Syria fell today. Here's what you need to know.

The Iranian axis is collapsing throughout the Mideast and Israel has made incredible military achievements. But developments are complex, and there's more than meets the eye.

A private jet secretly heading for an “undisclosed destination,” left Syrian air-space in the pre-dawn hours this morning: it was carrying Syrian President Bashar Assad. Thus ends 54 years of rule by the Assad family, as well “Syria” as we’ve known it.

*Photo: AI image for illustration only. Not a real depiction.

This story actually begins shortly after October 7, when Israel’s “War Cabinet” adopted two official war goals: to dismantle Hamas’s military and political control in Gaza, and to bring the hostages home. Eleven months into the fighting Israel added a third goal - to return Israel’s northern population safely to their homes. Less than 6 hours later, over 3,000 pagers exploded throughout Lebanon.

Since that time, Israel has eviscerated Hezbollah, degraded Hamas from a terror semi-state to a small scale insurgency group, and utterly humiliated Iran. Iran’s humiliation, which began when Israel disintegrated much of its terror proxy network, came to a dramatic conclusion when Israel entered Iranian airspace, destroyed its missile factories, and wiped out its entire, Russian made, air defense system.

Then, at 4am on November 26, the Lebanon “cease-fire” agreement began: for an initial period of 60 days, almost exactly the amount of time remaining in the term of current U.S. President Joe Biden. Predictably, Hezbollah has been breaching the ceasefire ever since it began, but unlike in prior years, Israel is directly enforcing the agreement through military action, as permitted by the cease-fire’s terms.

Meanwhile, Syria has been watching. Its president, Bashar Assad, had survived the 2011 Syrian civil war mainly through support from Russia and Iran, including an estimated 10,000 seasoned Hezbollah fighters. In exchange Assad provided both his patrons with access, including turning Syria into one big Iranian highway for moving weapons to Hezbollah - primarily for use against Israel.

Yet now Russia’s forces are being massively depleted by its war in the Ukraine, Iran is far less feared after its shellacking at the hands of the IDF, and Hezbollah is a shadow of its former self. The various rebel groups in Syria, who had been contained but never defeated, took notice, and attacked.

Assad was overthrown this morning primarily by radical Sunni extremists, many linked to the ISIS and Al Qaeda terror organizations. A central core of those militants have rebranded themselves under the name “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS). HTS is backed primarily by Qatar and Turkey as well as the Muslim Brotherhood. Unconfirmed reports allege that the U.S. secretly supported HTS in exchange for a promise to not attack the U.S. or Israel, through history shows that such promises from terror groups are rarely reliable.

Another group fighting in Syria is the so called “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF), a coalition of Kurds, Christians and other minorities, connected with the PKK/YPG, a Kurdish militant group widely designated as a terror organization, with a Marxist, anti-U.S. and anti-Western ideology. Nonetheless, the U.S. has been quietly backing the SDF, hoping that this will prevent the group from turning on the West, despite its violent ideology.

Meanwhile, Iraq has been absorbing many of the Shiite fighters fleeing Syria, raising the question of whether America’s plan to fully withdraw by 2026 is wise under the circumstances. Iran, which had initially sent fighters to protect Assad, has since pulled them back, and Hezbollah sent a small contingent of some 2,000 fighters, who have proven mostly ineffective.

In short, with the departure of Bashar Assad, Iran and Russia have lost much of their influence in Syria, which is yet another blow to Iran’s proxy network, and at least in part a repercussion from Israel’s astounding military successes since October 7. Yet the forces taking over Syria are mostly the same violent Sunni terrorists who have been fighting for control of Syria since the Arab Spring in 2011.

Despite its astounding successes, Israel not yet achieved its war goals: it is still not safe for Israelis to return to their homes in the North, Hamas is still clings to a degree of control in Gaza, and some 100 hostages still remain in horrific captivity.

Yet there is cause for optimism: though its northern cease-fire agreement is technically between Israel and the government of Lebanon, it was also approved by Hezbollah, at least what’s left of it. The terror group, which had sworn to keep fighting until Israel leaves Gaza, has therefore stepped back from its promise, thus abandoning Hamas to its own devices. This blow to Hamas’s delusion of defeating Israel through a regional war, along with some fierce rhetoric by incoming President Donald Trump, has raised hopes of closing a deal to, at long last, bring home the some 100 Israeli hostages who remain in Hamas captivity.

Trump has also vowed to reinstate his campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran, which, from 2020 to 2022, drastically reduced its influence in the region, and made it vulnerable to its own domestic population, much of which would like to overthrow the Islamic regime.

Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports out of Yemen indicate that the continued weakening of Iran may trigger an attempt by Saudi backed forces to overthrow the Houthi rebel group. Finally, here in Israel we are optimistic that the Abraham Accord process will resume, beginning with Saudi Arabia and perhaps spreading across the more moderate parts of the Arab world.

In short, there are no “good guys” to root for in Syria, and there are no simple solutions to the challenges faced by Israel and the Western world. Yet Israel is significantly safer today than it was 14 months ago, and is now widely considered the preeminent power in the middle east: by friends and enemies alike.

More to come…

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