Election polling bias
A brief analysis of election polling accuracy in Israel.
Israel’s major public opinion polls have consistently and significantly overestimated performance of left leaning parties while underestimating the right, over the past decade of elections.
We performed an apolitical analysis of actual pollster performance from the elections of 2022, 2020 and 2015 and concluded the following:
Across the three elections, the polls under-predicted the Right-Wing bloc by an average of 5.71 seats and over-predicted the Left/Center/Arab bloc by an average of 2.52 seats.
Note: the summaries indicate partial Knesset seats because they represent averages across multiple pollsters.
Elections November 1, 2022:
Summary:
Cross tabs:
Data sources:
Pollster data (October 23-28, 2022)
Elections March 2, 2020:
Summary:
Cross tabs:
Data sources:
Pollster data (February 19-28, 2020)
Elections March 17, 2015
Summary:
Cross-tabs:
Data sources:
Pollster data (March 6-13 2022)