Did Trump just threaten to "abandon" Israel?
In a word: no. Said one official, "This is false. The idea that we would abandon Israel is preposterous."
The Washington Post claimed yesterday that U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened to “abandon” Israel unless Israel promptly ends its defensive war against the internationally designated Hamas terror organization in Gaza. Specifically, the article states:
“Trump’s people are letting Israel know, ‘We will abandon you if you do not end this war,’” said a person familiar with the discussions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.”
Photo: U.S. President Donald Trump at the Israel American Council summit via Picryl.
But is it true?
In a word: no. Said one official, "This is false. The idea that we would abandon Israel is preposterous."
Here’s how we apply critical thinking to this kind of rumor:
Who or what is the source?
The Post wants us to believe an anonymous source, but anonymous news sources are notoriously unreliable. Furthermore, a high level anonymous source will usually be identified as “high level” or “in the administration” or at the very least an “official.”
In this case, the source is identified merely as “a person familiar with the discussions” which could mean literally anything - from a White House intern to local a taxi driver who’s “familiar” with the news. Maybe it’s the journalist’s mom? Who knows…
Is there any corroboration?
Anonymous sources are not always wrong, but when they’re right, there’s usually some other data or additional sources to confirm. Keep in mind, a bunch of other publications quoting the same Washington Post story does not count as “additional sources,” - that’s just a bunch of people repeating the SAME source. In this case, there is no OTHER source whatsoever to confirm this dramatic statement.
What’s happening “on the ground”?
If any American president were making such a threat, Israel would be making plans - if not to immediately stop its operations, then at least to create options to do so.
So… is Israel making preparations to modify or cease its operations in Gaza?
From within Israel we can usually tell - for example, we know when our friends and family are being called up to reserve duty - or coming home. We see and hear aircraft movements over our cities, and many other little clues.
You can also perceive important clues from abroad - for example, before Israel (or any democracy) makes a major strategy change, there are discussions and arguments among leadership and in cabinet meetings, which are widely publicized in the news. Certain military and intelligence tactics can be kept secret, but in a democracy, that is almost never possible with major strategy decisions.
For example, recall the “pager operation” last September, in which Israel remotely blew up several thousand military pagers used by the Hezbollah terror organization. Although the tech was kept highly secret, earlier that day Israel’s Security Cabinet had publicly modified its war goals to include countering Hezbollah, a development which had been anticipated for some time. The stunning tactics were secret, but the overall strategy was very public.
In this case, there are exactly zero perceivable clues that Israel has any plans to modify its current strategy in Gaza in the near term, unless the hostages are released. There are also no clues at the Israeli cabinet level that the United States has made any such threats or demands.
What does the White House have to say?
It seemed a bit strange that for such a dramatic story, the Post didn’t even bother to get a White House comment. Yet the very next day, the White House did weigh in with one official saying:
"This is false. The idea that we would abandon Israel is preposterous."
National Security Council spokesman James Hewitt added:
"Israel has had no better friend in its history than President Trump. We continue to work closely with our ally Israel to ensure remaining hostages in Gaza are freed, Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, and to strengthen regional security in the Middle East."
Is it possible that the White House is lying, that the entire Israeli democracy is silent, and the Israeli public is completely blind? Could it be that an anonymous source with zero corroboration is actually correct? Is it possible that Donald Trump has suddenly developed the tremendous self-discipline needed to threaten Israel in private while not letting a word slip out publicly?
Yes, it’s possible. But not very likely.
What is likely?
Every time Israel has increased pressure on Hamas, the world has seen a corresponding increase in protests, false claims of genocide and dramatic statements by world leaders. This typically includes a rise in dramatic sounding anonymous “sources” making outlandish statements. For example, shortly before Trump’s Middle East trip, an anonymous source claimed (incorrectly) that the President was about to recognize a Palestinian state.
In short, this is how Hamas fights - with rumor, innuendo and outright lies, with law-fare, “diplomacy-fare” and other similar tactics. Allies such as Qatar and Iran help to fund and spread this disinformation and misinformation. And sometimes it even works, at least temporarily.
The scientist Carl Sagan once said, “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”
In this case, the bulk of available evidence, including statements by the White House itself, points to a Hamas disinformation tactic.
Well said. Or: “Everyone please calm down.”
So many journalist are in fact activist who want to use their position to change events rather than report them. I think this was made up. They have no ethics, especially New York Times, Washington Post, etc..