B-2

Israel has performed miraculously, the United States participated with stunning success and admirable strength at exactly the right moment, and we are all taking part in history.

The United States carried out strikes on Iran’s most hardened and inaccessible nuclear facilities early this morning, reportedly completely destroying them. Codenamed “Operation Midnight Hammer” the strikes included use of 30,000 pound “bunker buster” GBU-57 munitions dropped from the B-2 bomber, the only aircraft capable of doing so, as well as submarine launched Tomahawk cruise missiles.

I’m pleased to see the United States do the right thing - not just for Israel but for America and for the entire world. The stunning scope of American military might is hard to overstate: America accomplished in a single night what would have taken Israel weeks of fighting and significant risk, if it could even be done at all. In doing so, America has changed history.

Photo: An American B2 bomber by Open Source Intel via X.

The best barometer of what Israeli intelligence agencies are thinking is the instructions of the Israeli “Home-Front Command” the פיקוד העורף: our alert level has been raised to the highest possible level, closing most institutions and limiting Israel to “essential activity“ only.

So even though I had a rare and much needed sleep through the entire night last night, it’s safe to conclude that Israel expects Iran to engage in further and more dangerous hostilities. Indeed, we experienced a particularly large missile barrage just this morning - as usual it was almost entirely targeted on residential neighborhoods, wounding 23, including three children.

I expect we’ll prevail and with relatively minimal damage to the home-front, as we have so far. However, there will be some uncertain and difficult moments along the way. And it’s never safe to underestimate Iran: which may still have some surprises “up its sleeve” such as unusually large munitions or even non-conventional weapons.

This is not World War III. Israel has already toppled or massively degraded all of Iran‘s real supporters in the region (Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria’s Assad regime, the Houthis in Yemen), and neither Russia nor China seem inclined to be helpful in any meaningful or military capacity. That leaves Iran standing alone, which is exactly the opposite of what “world war“ means.

America’s home-front is beyond Iran’s reach, unless it attempts to activate some kind of local terrorism in the U.S. - but I have no specific indication that Iran has that capacity at this time. American troops in the region will of course be on the front lines, but they are protected by the most powerful military in human history, and so I expect that they too will prevail. Ultimately, it’s really Israeli civilians who will be the target of the Iranian response. But I’m sure we will continue to defend ourselves successfully.

You may have heard that the Tel Aviv stock exchange is up - actually hitting record highs this morning! I have a theory as to why - and no, it’s not merely that defense stocks are pulling up the average index price.

Economic measures, like GDP and international credit ratings, tell us primarily about the present and the recent past - and the past 19 months of war have indeed dragged those numbers down. Yet the stock market is a measure of how people perceive the future. The threat of Iran and its proxies has long been “priced in” to Israel’s markets, dragging them a bit lower than their true potential - which makes the country’s prosperity all the more impressive. Yet today, as Iran’s regional threat begins to disintegrate, investors are, for the first time ever, taking that “threat discount” out of their calculations, and demonstrating an enthusiastic confidence in Israel’s future: a future of prosperity and peace through strength.

We aren’t there yet,: the immediate future is one of significant stress and risk for ordinary Israelis, and a degree of concern for Americans as well, especially those with loved ones in the armed services.

Internationally, both Israel and America are already being blamed for “violating international law” (they are not) and for “starting World War III” (also untrue).

As Iranian officials continue to scream “Death to America” in the halls of their parliament, some extreme American liberals bizarrly claim that that letting Iran access the means to produce a nuclear weapon is the way to achieve “peace.” The only thing even more absurd is those extreme conservatives who believe that allowing a nuclear Iran is the way to put “America first.” Both are wrong.

U.N. Secretary General António Guterres says he is “gravely alarmed by the use of force by the United States,” and a number of world leaders claim violations of international law. Even some of America’s closest allies are urging “de-escalation” in Iran, which is (at best) an utterly bizarre statement to make while Israelis run to bomb shelters and Iran threatens “devastating consequences.”

And so, at RealityCheck we have our work cut out for us in the coming weeks and months - working to impact policy in ways that concretely make the world a better place. Yet this is also a time of great optimism: Israel has performed miraculously since June 13, the United States has participated with stunning success and admirable strength at exactly the right moment, and we are all taking part in history.

A final thought: Israel is conducting limited “rescue flights” for Israelis trapped abroad during this war. Though flights stopped briefly this morning after the American strike they are now resuming, a sign of confidence in the safety of air traffic. What’s notable is that these rescue flights are bringing Israelis TO Israel: not out FROM Israel, but TO Israel, even in the midst of war.

That’s what the word “rescue” means to Israelis.

I find that rather touching.

Thank you so much: for standing by us on this journey.