Trump’s inauguration has reduced rocket attacks on Israel to zero
The "Trump doctrine" of threatening "hell to pay" has already resulted in zero time in bomb shelters, zero rockets missiles and drones hitting Israel soil, and less of our citizens being killed.
Since Donald Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States on January 20, the number of rocket, missile and drone attacks on Israel has dropped from an average of several per day to a grand total of: zero. Here’s why.
By analyzing raw data from Israel’s Home Front Command, and with assistance from AI analysis tools, we produced the above graph which shows the number of “Red Alert” air raid sirens over the past two months: the final six weeks of the Biden administration, and the first ten days of the Trump administration.
(*Note: there were two alerts on January 30 however the IDF later determined both to be false alarms and they are therefore not shown.)
When it comes to foreign policy, former President Joe Biden demonstrates (in the words of Israeli journalist Haviv Rettig Gur) an “obsession with stability.” Biden’s obsession often took the form of pressuring America’s closest ally to not engage in appropriate self defense, even in the face of perpetual, and sometimes enormous, rocket, missile and drone attacks on Israelis. The ironic (but predictable) result was a dramatic decrease in stability, as Israel’s (and America’s) enemies felt emboldened and safe while escalating aggression against America and its allies. Examples of this escalation over the past year included massive ballistic missile barrages by Iran against Israel in April and October, as well as a violent shut down of global shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis, a U.S. designated terror organization that effectively controls Yemen.
The new Trump administration has taken an aggressive tone, making it clear that defiance of the United States will be met with stronger measures than in the past, including threats of “hell to pay.” Some initial expressions of the new Trump policy include the release of frozen U.S. military aid to Israel, which the Biden administration had previously held back as a means of pressuring its ally. Other measures have included renewing sanctions on certain international institutions which seek to hamper self-defense actions by Israel and the United States, such as the International Criminal Court at the Hague.
Photo credit: whitehouse.gov
In parallel, on January 19, 2025, Israel and Hamas entered into a deal to bring home at least a portion of the hostages held by the U.S. designated terror group, as well as to initiate a temporary ceasefire. Both the Biden and Trump administrations claim credit: with Biden noting that the deal was negotiated during his presidency, and the Trump camp pointing to the pressure brought by the (then) President-elect. For its part, Israel has mixed feelings about the deal: joy and relief at the return of the hostages, tempered by concern over the significant security risks the deal creates. We analyzed the topic in depth on our Substack page.
In any event, the deal with Hamas, though significant in its own right, is not responsible for the recent cessation of attacks. For one thing, Israel had already degraded Hamas’s offensive capabilities to the point that the terror group is now mostly incapable of firing at all. In fact, most of the recent attacks on Israel originated not from Hamas but from the Houthi terror group out of Yemen, which is not a party to this deal and which recently vowed to keep attacking Israel until it “liberate[s] every inch of Palestine.” Hezbollah, a US designated terror organization in Lebanon, has also been regularly firing on Israel, in violation of a separate ceasefire agreement from last November. Nonetheless, attacks from all three parties dropped to zero upon Trump’s inauguration, and have stayed at zero ever since: a stretch of quiet Israel has not seen in over a year.
Since the inauguration, Israel suffered one terror attack: a January 21 stabbing in a popular Tel Aviv nightlife area called “Nachalat Binyamin.” This was the latest in a long string of attacks that Israel’s Shin Bet security service attributes to Iran’s practice of flooding the region with funding, weapons, and encouragement. However, since that time, Iran has ordered its proxies throughout the Middle East to “avoid provocative actions,” specifically stating fears of an “existential threat” in the form of possible retaliation by President Trump.
RealityCheck neither supports nor opposes specific politicians, however we do evaluate specific policies. It remains to be seen how Trump's strong policy statements will hold up over time, and how effectively the administration will respond when enemies of the West inevitably attempt to test the White House’s resolve. Yet for the time being, under the new “Trump doctrine,” Israelis have already experienced a dramatic decrease in the amount of time we’re spending in bomb shelters, the number of rockets, missiles and drones landing on our soil, and the number of our citizens being killed.